Napier is back for 2025
Early Wednesday morning, we learned who the President of the United States will be in 2025.
Everyone has an opinion about why it went the way it did, but my analysis is pretty simple: Kamala Harris did a poor job of answering the question, “if things are messed up, and you’ve been in charge for three years, why haven’t you done something about it yet?”
I’ll no-doubt get criticized for bringing politics into this column, but I do have a purpose for bringing up that particular question. That’s because on Thursday, we found out who the head football coach at the University of Florida will be in 2025 after a vote of confidence was released for Billy Napier by athletic director Scott Stricklin.
And the question Gators fans are asking is the football-version of the question I posed above: “If things are messed up (and 15-18 overall and 1-10 against rivals is the very definition), and you’ve been in charge for 3 seasons, why haven’t you done something about it yet.”
If that seems harsh, it is intended to be. The University of Florida is supposed to win championships. Stricklin said so in his statement, as he stated the goal is to “work together to build a championship program.”
The problem is, I don’t see anything that suggests Florida is anywhere close.
But…Napier inherited a mess from Dan Mullen
That might be true. But you don’t have to look much past just this season to see that this is an empty excuse.
I grew up in Indiana. My dad and older sister are Hoosier alums. I probably would have gone there if we hadn’t moved to Florida. I’m still a huge Indiana basketball fan. But for my entire life (and before), the Indiana football program was a joke.
Going back 10 coaches (that goes back to 1973), Indiana has an average record of 4.5-6.9 (40%). Coming into this year, the most games any coach had won at Indiana in that time was eight. Curt Cignetti was hired this year, and has the Hoosiers at 9-0, ranked 8th in the AP poll and poised to make the College Football Playoff.
Hoosiers fans would be thrilled with the season even if Indiana lost its final three games.
If we do the same exercise for Florida looking at the past 10 coaches (back to 1970), the Gators program has an average record of 8.1-4.0 (67%). Even if we remove the Spurrier and Meyer eras, Florida has been a better program than Indiana by far, with a winning percentage of 60% and 9 seasons with at least 9 wins.
At 15-18, Napier’s win percentage of 45 percent makes him the third-best coach in Indiana history going back to Lee Corso (behind Cignetti and the immortal Bill Mallory), but has him ranked as the tenth-best coach in Florida history going back to Doug Dickey (out of 10).
Yes, that’s correct. Napier has the worst winning percentage of any coach in Florida history going back 10 coaches. It’s actually 12, as Ray Graves (67% and Bob Woodruff (55%) won at a higher clip as well. We have to go back to Raymond Wolf, who took over right after returning from his World War II service to find someone with a worse overall winning percentage as the Gators head coach (perhaps ironically, according to Wikipedia, Wolf was going to be let go after 1948 before the students and players rallied to keep him on, which then led to his firing in 1949).
To cement the point, here are the histories of Indiana and Florida plotted side-by-side going back 10 coaches (x-axis is each coach, oldest to newest and y-axis is their win percentage).
What we see is exactly what we would expect. Indiana has zero history of winning, yet Cignetti is doing just that. Florida has an incredible history of winning, yet Napier has been unable to do so.
Since 1970 (55 seasons), the Gators have lost seven or more games just six times. If Napier goes 1-3 to finish out the 2024 season, he will have done it three.
So I ask, if you’re going to fix the mess, why haven’t you done it yet?
But…the buyout money can be used for NIL
There’s no doubt that money has become a huge part of college football at this point. And there were lots of flips – much to Florida’s chagrin – last early signing day as NIL really became the driving force in recruits’ decision-making processes.
The problem is that Florida was (as usual) late to the party. In 2024, NIL negotiations until the 11th hour were common as I’m sure programs weren’t quite sure what recruits were worth and recruits tried to figure that out too.
Will some of that go on this year? I’m sure it will, but I suspect that the market for players at the high end has already settled quite a bit. And at the 5-star level, you’re going to have to blow someone out of the water with an offer given that true gamechangers are making multiple millions of dollars.
That leaves trying to find value at a ranking level where the uncertainty is much higher. I’ve written extensively about how the chances of a recruit panning out goes down considerably once you get out of the 5-star rankings, which means you’re now outbidding others for players who may not become high-level contributors.
In fact, that’s exactly what happened to Florida last year. The Gators were able to secure the commitments of Lagway and 5-star defensive end L.J. McCray, but saw the following players flip (associated 247Sports composite rankings in parentheses):
- S Xavier Filsaime (37)
- DL Amaris Williams (62)
- Edge Jamonte Waller (95)
- DL Nasir Johnson (108)
- LB Adarius Hayes (123)
- CB Wardell Mack (149)
- WR Izaiah Williams (315)
- DL Kendall Jackson (427)
What we see is that the players who were flipped were players who are on the 4/5-star border or are 4-star players. These are good prospects, but they aren’t elite ones. So if you expect to use spare money through NIL to flip 2025 5-stars to the Florida program, that probably isn’t in the cards. And 5-stars are the only guys who might be big enough difference makers to help in 2025.
That leaves the transfer portal.
This is an area where Napier and Co. have done a pretty good job. The additions of Montrell Johnson, O’Cyrus Torrence, and Ricky Pearsall in year one immediately paid dividends. But there were still misses (or at least delayed contributions) from Jack Miller, Kam Waites and Jalen Kimber.
Last year was a little more mixed with the additions of Graham Mertz, Damieon George, Micah Mazzccua, Caleb Banks and Cam Jackson on the positive end of the ledger and Teradja Mitchell, RJ Moten, Lyndell Hudson, Kiyaunta Goodwin, Mannie Nunnery, Deuce Spurlock, and Cam Carroll on the little/no contribution side.
2024 is obviously still ongoing, but the additions of Pup Howard, Chimere Dike, Elijhah Badger, George Gumbs, Trikweze Bridges and Brendon Crenshaw-Dickson have been extremely positive. There have still been misses, but when you’re bringing in six starters through the portal, I think you have to consider that a success.
If you’re going to build this way, I believe you have to essentially punt on the 2025 high school recruiting class and sink all your NIL funds into the portal before early signing day. Ole Miss did that last year and got a haul from the portal. You need to strike early while other teams are still holding onto their funds for high school recruits.
But that is a really risky move. With all the success Florida has had in the portal, we’re still talking about a team that has gone 15-18 over the past three seasons. That’s a tough way to build.
But regardless of the approach, the question I still have is if you’re going to fix the talent level, why haven’t you done it yet?
But…firing Napier dooms Florida’s 2025 recruiting class
Let’s be honest, the 2025 class was doomed to mediocrity whether Stricklin gave this vote of confidence or not.
A lot has been made of the fact that this class is ranked 51st by 247Sports, but that’s a little bit misleading. On an average player ranking perspective, the class is ranked 18th. That’s still not where Florida needs to be, but isn’t the disaster that the 51st ranking (due to player volume) makes it seem.
But here’s the thing: this class isn’t going to climb up above 14th or 15th even with this vote of confidence. The truly elite players have already committed elsewhere. We already talked about how they are unlikely to flip. That means you’re looking at guys ranked in the high to mid 4-star range, or guys ranked around the average player ranking (or maybe slightly higher) than the Gators currently have.
Thus, this class is going to disappoint even with the certainty that Napier will still be around next year.
But that also assumes that NIL funds are going to be spent on this class. But given the fact that Napier is going to be on extremely thin ice next year, the prevailing wisdom is that NIL dollars will be spent on the transfer portal. That means that the 2025 class will close poorly because there won’t be the funds to make elite guys flip.
This class will be substandard whether you make a change or not. What you’re really doing by keeping Napier around is you’re ensuring that if he doesn’t turn things around, you end up with substandard recruiting classes in both 2025 and 2026.
So the question again is, if you’re holding onto Napier so you have more NIL money, why haven’t you offered that money to secure more commits yet?
But….we need a disciplined approach
Perhaps the thing that irked me the most in Stricklin’s statement was this part: “In these times of change, we are dedicated to a disciplined, stable approach that is focused on long-term, sustained success for Gator athletes, recruits and fans.”
In early 2022, 247Sports graded Billy Napier’s staff hires as an A-plus. Of that staff, Patrick Toney, Corey Raymond, Keary Colbert, William Peagler, Sean Spencer, Jay Bateman and Darnell Stapleton are all gone. Only Jabbar Juluke, Rob Sale and Mike Peterson remain.
Beyond just Toney leaving, Florida has had three different defensive coordinators in each of Billy Napier’s three seasons. If a “disciplined, stable approach” is needed, why did the defensive staff have to get adjusted so much? Shouldn’t Napier have given them more time?
Or how about the other things that would indicate a disciplined approach?
Why does a potential Florida lead turn into a touchdown deficit after a botched snap on a field goal (Georgia, 2024), or why does a 10-second runoff occur at the end of the half that prevents a field goal because too many men are on the field (Tennessee, 2024), or why does Florida get a penalty for having two players with the same number on the field at the same time on a punt (Utah, 2023), or why does Florida miss a field goal after a penalty because they mistakenly ran the field goal unit onto the field (Arkansas, 2023), or why does Florida give up two touchdowns on drives extended by roughing the passer penalties (one on a third-and-10 incompletion, Miami, 2024).
These are just the issues that jump to mind immediately. I’m sure there are more.
And the question remains, if a disciplined approach is what’s needed, why haven’t you done it yet?
But…D.J. Lagway may transfer
This is the best reason for the vote of confidence. Maybe Lagway made it clear he’s going elsewhere if Napier isn’t back. He tweeted his approval of Stricklin’s statement right after it was released.
Lagway has shown enough that I think he can earn a statue at Florida if he’s surrounded by the right players. But it’s that last part that concerns me.
Last year, LSU got one of the best seasons from a QB you’re going to see when Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy. The Tigers went 10-3. It turns out, even a truly elite QB can only do so much when the defense is mediocre.
With Garrett Nussmeier helming the position this year, the Tigers have taken a step back on offense even as the defense has improved. While they are 6-2 this season, their underlying numbers suggest a team closer to Florida’s ilk. They aren’t going to make the playoff and they wasted a transcendent season from the most important position on the field.
Clemson was able to thread this needle. The Tigers had a string of elite QBs in Tajh Boyd, Deshawn Watson and Trevor Lawrence (with a Kelly Bryant cameo in the middle). But the Tigers also ranked 2nd in the ACC in recruiting during that building period. Florida isn’t going to be within shouting distance of that recruiting ranking in the SEC.
Lagway is good with the potential to be great. But a lot of things have to go right to not waste it. And if you can build a great team around Lagway, you should have been able to do so around Graham Mertz.
So why haven’t you don’t it yet?
Takeaway
These excuses are just that: excuses.
Napier has been given every resource that he asked for. He has built this team in his image, including talking about how the culture of this team was going to lead to wins this season. Stricklin said the same thing before the opener against Miami. This team is likely going to go 5-7.
Yes, the injuries to Mertz and Lagway do color the way some look at this season. But the fact that Aidan Warner is the third-string QB is a Napier issue as well, considering that he was at least somewhat involved in the Jaden Rashada debacle and definitely involved in the flip of Austin Simmons to Ole Miss. It sure would be nice to have one of those guys playing against Texas on Saturday.
And the argument that any new coaches Florida may want are going to be in the playoff is a lame excuse. If Florida is serious about winning, they’re going to go after guys with a proven track record. That means when it’s time to make a change, it’s likely going to be to a coach who is competing to make the playoff.
Additionally, if the program is already being built through the portal and punting on the 2025 recruiting class, then why does it matter if you wait until after the playoff to make the change?
Look, I don’t like that early signing day happens before the season ends (I suspect that will get rectified in the near future). But no coach ever built a program with his transition class. It is the bump – or second – recruiting class that is critical to his success. Napier’s bump-class wasn’t good enough and he’s reaping now what was sown back then. Given the ability to build through the portal, I don’t think you sacrifice making a change just because you might have to wait for a coach who’s team is actually winning games.
I’ll end this analysis where I started it. If Napier can do it, why hasn’t he done it yet?
We can talk all we want about what might happen. That Napier needs more time to build, or you don’t want to sacrifice a particular recruiting class, or Lagway looks special, but the reality is that the average season at Florida – non-Spurrier and non-Meyer edition – is 8-4.
I’m not asking Napier to win championships. I’m just asking him to match the average output of Florida coaches since 1970 in one of his first three seasons. That doesn’t seem to be too much to ask, but it isn’t going to happen.
I’m not asking Napier to dominate Georgia on the recruiting trail. But it would be nice if the level of high school talent he brings in could exceed that brought in by Dan Mullen, since Mullen notoriously didn’t like recruiting and since Napier was brought in specifically to improve recruiting that had lagged under Mullen.
And I’m not asking Napier to win every close game. But it would be really nice if Florida could play a clean game where there weren’t clear coaching and discipline mistakes that cost the Gators an opportunity to win.
The Tennessee game this year was the nadir of that experience. Florida outplayed the Vols – especially in the first half – only to just have a 3-0 lead heading into the half because of various gaffes throughout. Individually, you could blame the players for each of the mistakes. But collectively, that falls on Napier.
Or at least it did. Now, it falls on Stricklin, who I could probably ask the same question I’ve been asking throughout this article.
If Napier is the guy – and if you’re the guy – why haven’t you shown it yet?