The time is now versus LSU if Florida wants to go bowling
The Gators have three games left and have only four wins. That means they need to win two of their last three to get into a bowl.
Don’t let the two losses of Ole Miss fool you. That team is a juggernaut, especially on offense. Florida’s defense hasn’t been able to stop a decent offense all year. They may give up 700 yards to the Rebels.
FSU was a toss up at the beginning of the year. But after the ‘Noles have completely fallen apart to the tune of a 1-8 record, that one should be in the ‘W’ column for Napier and the Gators.
That leaves this game against LSU as the one Florida needs to get.
Had you told me before the season that Florida would go 6-6, that would have met my expectations (that’s the record I picked in our preseason magazine). It’s been a circuitous route to get there – and I have a hard time saying this season has met expectations – but Napier has the ability to build momentum heading into 2025 with wins in two of his last three and a potential bowl win.
Given the youth of this team, the budding star he has at QB, and around $26 million to spend this offseason, there is a small opportunity to completely flip the program’s narrative over the next 12 months. But it’s hard to do that when you’ve got three straight losing seasons on your resume.
So for Florida – and Billy Napier – the time is now against LSU.
Stats
Florida’s offensive stats are ridiculously skewed because of injuries at the QB position. The Gators rank 38th against FBS opponents in yards per pass attempt at 7.6. But that comes with Aidan Warner averaging 4.6 yards per attempt over the last two weeks.
Coming into the game against Georgia, Florida ranked 13th in yards per pass attempt on the heels of Lagway’s explosion against Kentucky. Remember, these are numbers against FBS opponents and so exclude his performance against Samford.
Even a limited Lagway is a threat to torch an LSU defense that ranks 86th in yards per pass allowed. Of course, Florida has the same issue, as the Gators have allowed 8.2 yards per attempt through the air this year so far.
That translates to explosives, where Florida is ranked 128th in the country having allowed 53 plays that exceed 20 yards allowed. LSU is better in that category, having allowed 39 such plays.
LSU’s offense rates really well at 25th in yards per play gained against FBS opponents. That isn’t a fluke as the Tigers averaged 6.6 yards per play against USC, 5.8 against South Carolina, 6.3 against LSU, 5.6 against Ole Miss, 5.5 against Arkansas, 5.9 against Texas A&M and 5.2 against Alabama.
That means we should expect somewhere between 6.0-6.5 yards per play gained for the LSU offense against Florida’s defense, which translates to 33-37 points. So the question will be, can Florida win a track meet?
Quarterback
If being a Florida fan has taught me one immutable truth, it’s this: never trust a Nussmeier.
LSU is learning that lesson after being spoiled by getting to cheer for Jayden Daniels in 2023. Daniels put up a truly transcendent season on his way to the Heisman Trophy and so expecting Nussmeier to even approximate that season was unreasonable. Still, in many ways, Nussmeier has fallen short of even those reduced expectations.
First we should start by acknowledging that PFF thinks Nussmeier has been okay. His 80.9 overall rating is seventh in the SEC, ahead of Carson Beck (76.7) and Nico Iamaleava (76.9) but behind Blake Shapen (81.7) and Diego Pavia (84.4). That isn’t great, but that isn’t bad.
But if we look at some other numbers, the picture gets a little bit more murky.
Overall, Nussmeier has a QB rating of 139.5, which is below average (~148). He’s thrown 11 interceptions this season, which is a lot for a guy who is only averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. He also provides very little on the ground, as he has 19 rushes for 21 yards. The result is that Yards Above Replacement (YAR) – my proprietary stat that takes a QBs running and passing efficiency into account – has him at -0.13.
Now, the same general thing could be said for Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers prior to them playing the Gators. Beck didn’t play well at all and Ewers looked like a Heisman candidate.
But there are two important distinctions that I need to point out when analyzing Nussmeier: he’s really ineffective throwing deep and really ineffective throwing to his left.
If we look at Nussmeier’s QB rating as a function of air yards, we see where LSU’s offense has taken a step back.
I spent a lot of time criticizing Graham Mertz for being ineffective going deep, but Nussmeier is significantly worse. He’s thrown 157 passes more than 10 air yards downfield, and has a QB rating of 133.5 on those throws. Eight of his 11 interceptions have come on those throws as well.
It’s really hard to have a QB rating that low on deep throws
But it’s not just that Nussmeier is limited going deep; he’s also limited directionally.
He is 2-19 for 48 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT going deep (20-plus yards) to his left (QB rating 38.6). He’s 13-42 for 247 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT on any throw 10-plus yards to his left (QB rating 91.3). That is a huge hole that should allow Florida’s defense to shrink the field. Set up your coverage to force him to throw in that direction.
Might you get burned? Sure. But given the limitations on Florida’s defense right now, both through talent and through injury, you have to make a choice. It’s pretty clear that Florida should force Nussmeier to throw to the outside and deep. If they do, they may give up some big plays, but they’ll force some mistakes too.
Takeaway
I’m bringing my son Max to this game. Max’s two experiences in The Swamp thus far are the Amari Burney walk-off interception against Utah and last year’s 12-0 blown lead against FSU. What I’m saying is that while Max doesn’t guarantee a win, he guarantees a close game.
Normally against LSU I would say that’s a bad thing. After all, close games against the Tigers often end in a shoe throw or a fake field goal that goes against the Gators.
But Florida has D.J. Lagway and Elijhah Badger back for this one. LSU just got beat up by Alabama. And if we look at overall advanced stats like Predicted Points Added (PPA), Florida’s defense and LSU’s defense are virtually identical.
Florida’s offense is just different with Lagway. The Gators have 41 overall plays of 20-plus yards and Lagway is responsible for 21 of them (51%). The Gators have 12 overall plays of 40-plus yards and Lagway is responsible for 11 of those (92%). Saturday Down South’s Neil Blackmon did a great job of pointing out Lagway’s limitations against cover-2 in his preview this week (and how he carves up single high safeties), suggesting that LSU should drop two safeties and wait for Lagway to make a mistake.
But there are two problems with this. First, Lagway is a prodigy who just had a week to step back while recovering from his hamstring injury to understand where his limitations are and how opposing defenses might exploit that. Second, LSU’s defense is ranked 72nd in yards per rush allowed against FBS opponents this year, meaning Jadan Baugh (or potentially Montrell Johnson) should be able to get it going.
And if Florida’s running backs are able to push LSU around, the only response for the Tigers is to bring one of those deep safeties up into the box. And we’ve seen what happens when you give Lagway the ability to throw against one deep safety.
In many ways, Nussmeier’s statistical profile is an extreme version of what we have seen from Graham Mertz. He’s a guy who will make the short throws over the middle but struggles when he has to go deep. And I’ve pined for Lagway over Mertz all year specifically because explosive plays with an inefficient quick game is way more valuable than the reverse.
Thus, Lagway – even at a limited capacity – is more valuable than Nussmeier. The defenses in this one are both bad. That means LSU is going to score, but so is Florida. And in a game where the Gators have an advantage at QB, that’s where I’m going with the pick.
Florida (-4) wins, 34-31.
Picks this year: 6-2 (4-4 ATS)
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