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Victory! Billy Napier delivers biggest win of career over LSU

Until Saturday, Florida hadn’t beaten LSU since 2018. There was the back-and-forth shootout between Trask and Burrow in 2019. There was the Marco shoe game in 2020 and Anthony Richardson being unstoppable in relief of Emory Jones in 2021. And, of course, there were the 11 touchdowns surrendered to Jayden Daniels in 2022 and 2023.

Add the true emergence of D.J. Lagway to that list for 2024.

Lagway has been good this year in relatively limited time. The laser that he threw to Aidan Mizell against Georgia gave Florida fans some fleeting hope that things were about to change. He then pulled his hamstring on the next drive, essentially ending the Gators chances against the Bulldogs and dooming them to an embarrassing defeat against Texas.

But the athletic training staff was able to strap up Lagway’s hamstring sufficient that he could give it a go, and go he did. I actually don’t think he played as well as he can (more on that later), but for the first time since 2020, Florida just had a major advantage at the most important position on the field in a game against a rival.

The result is that Billy Napier not only got the win over the Tigers, but his vision of what this offense – and this team – started to crystallize. Whether he can build on this momentum in the coming weeks and months is obviously to be determined.

But for one night, Florida fans could see the vision that was promised when Lagway committed to the Gators. And Napier could rest on the biggest win of his career as he took out a rival and provided hope that better days are rapidly on the horizon.

The Swamp

There’s been a lot of talk about the “toxicity” of the Gators fan base and how it negatively impacts the program. I tend to disagree with that sentiment, but I want to address that in the other direction after Max’s and my visit to The Swamp on Saturday.

This was a 4-5 Gators team with relatively little to play for. Billy Napier is a divisive figure among the fan base given his overall record. Yet that stadium was completely packed and rocking to support the Gators in a way that other programs usually reserve for playoff contenders.

Ohio State fans aren’t showing up to the horseshoe like that for a 4-5 team. Neither are Oregon fans, or Clemson fans or FSU fans. In fact, you don’t have to look too far to Tallahassee to see that the “FSU book guy” has made another appearance this year as the ‘Noles season has gone down the tubes.

Are Gators fans passionate? Heck yes, we are. Do we expect the team to perform? Also, yes.

But when the team performs, there isn’t an environment that is more electric. I watched as Max walked down the ramp screaming “It’s great – to be – a Florida Gator” with all of his new friends and beamed, not because he’s all-in (he is), but because there is something special about a winning experience in this particular stadium.

The Gators head coaching job is demanding. Many folks have wilted at the pressure that this fanbase puts upon their shoulders. Napier may still be in that camp. But on Saturday, he experienced the counter to all those demands and accountability.

If you lose, your job is always on the line. But if you win, you become a legend.

Lagway

D.J. Lagway was just okay in this game. Given the nature of his injury, I would have taken that coming into the game.

He completed 50 percent of his throws (13-26) and had a QB rating of 135.7, which is below average (~148) throwing the ball. However, Lagway took zero sacks and had zero total rushing attempts minus three kneel downs. He also averaged 8.7 yards per attempt, well above average. The result is that his Yards Above Replacement (YAR) – my proprietary stat that takes a QBs throwing and running efficiency into account – was 0.98, or similar to a Jake Fromm performance. That isn’t transcendent, but is very good.

But I would argue that this was a transcendent performance because of the hamstring.

Lagway wasn’t able to run basically at all. He had a contraption designed during the Anthony Richardson era to help limit his range of motion. Yet, he manipulated the pocket multiple times to get a throw off in a way that his opponent was unable to do (Nussmeier had a YAR of -3.22).

The thing about Lagway is that he’s a sniper. Whenever LSU game him man-to-man coverage, he immediately put pressure on their defense by taking a shot.

On this play, Elijhah Badger runs a double move to the outside. But I want you to watch the deep safety in the middle of the field. At the snap, he drifts to the middle of the field meaning LSU has one-on-one coverage on Badger. Lagway doesn’t even try to look the safety off, but instead just floats the ball to Badger’s outside shoulder. The ball is out with anticipation of Badger beating the corner, but before he actually does beat him. Easy touchdown.

Here’s another example. LSU has one deep safety and Lagway takes the snap and immediately throws to Badger on the outside. The touch on the throw is fantastic, but it’s the anticipation that really stands out. There is no delay. He’s not waiting for Badger to “come open”. He trusts that Badger will win his matchup, and knows the safety won’t be able to get over.

Repeatedy, LSU gave him man coverage and repeatedly, he made them pay. And he didn’t make them pay with a first down. He made them pay with an explosive play that led to points.

Lagway was still inconsistent in the pocket. His PFF rating for the game was 54.6, which is a measure of how well he executed on every play. The issue for LSU is that while Lagway may not have executed every play perfectly, when he did execute, it was a dagger that put the Gators in position to score.

And you can see the other parts of his game coming as he gets more playing time.

This is a really simple throw, but it relies on Lagway understanding that LSU is bringing a blitz from the outside and the middle linebackers and that the middle of the field will be open. He could have taken a deep shot on this one, as LSU has its safety deep. Instead, he dropped the ball off to his tight end right where the blitz was coming from, showing the ability to process what is happening post-snap.

And my favorite play of the night for Lagway didn’t even count.

This is a first-and-10 play after the Caleb Banks fumble recovery. LSU shows two deep safeties at the snap. They then fall into a zone across the board. There isn’t anything open with his receivers and Lagway checks the ball down to running back Ja’Kobi Jackson, who makes a play and takes the ball to the 17-yard line.

This gets called back for a holding, but it suggests that Lagway isn’t just a gunslinger who chucks the ball deep and hopes. He is starting to understand where his outlets are and how to make sure the Gators get positive yardage on every play, even if the deep shot isn’t available.

And when he figures that out completely, he’s going to be unstoppable.

The Defense

I was very critical of the Gators defense after the loss to Texas. That unit surrendered over 10 yards per play in the first half and couldn’t stop anything the Longhorns tried. The unit played much better in this one.

In fact, the defense almost dominated the LSU offense.

The underlying statistics are really favorable to the Gators defense. They surrendered 4.3 yards per play to the Tigers for the game, a mark that would put them in the top-5 defenses in the country. They sacked Nussmeier seven times, after he had only gone down six times all year. And they held LSU to 130 yards rushing on 44 carries (3.0 yards per play).

Of course, they also couldn’t get off the field on third down.

LSU finished 13-24 on third down, but had a stretch of eight conversions on ten attempts in the first half and were 8-12 overall in the first half. The result was that even though the Tigers were dominated on a per-play basis (7.9 yards per play vs. 4.3), they were able to stay in the game by dominating the time of possession.

Those third down conversions are the thing that Florida needs to clean up. It comes from being tentative and not wanting to give up a big play, but the Gators were too tentative at times.

This is perhaps the most egregious example. Florida has six men in the box against LSU and two deep safeties on a third-and-12 after a Nussmeier sack. The formation isn’t my issue, it’s that the safeties still stay wide a tick too long even after the ball is handed off and the defensive line doesn’t get any push.

The result is that the running back is able to use the official to shield himself from the two safeties converging for the tackle and squeeze through for the first down.

On this play, Florida drops into a zone essentially at the sticks, forcing Nussmeier to throw underneath. This is a great strategy on third-and-9 on this part of the field. Stop LSU after a gain of five or six yards and they’ll have to punt.

But each of Florida’s defenders – particularly those in the center of the field (Shemar James and Jordan Castell) drop a yard or two too deep. The result is that even though Florida gets Nussmeier to do exactly what they want him to do (check the ball down to his running back), they’re unable to make the tackle before he gets the first down.

I was surprised when I looked at the PFF grades for the game and saw Caleb Banks rating at “just” 75.2. I thought Banks was a dominant force inside and made Nussmeier repeatedly uncomfortable. But part of that was he had so many snaps because of the third down conversions that he had a bunch of chances to excel.

Now Banks had to get the job done on those snaps. And he definitely had Nussmeier thinking about him by the end of the night. Eventually the LSU offensive line broke and Gators were flying at the LSU QB.

I predicted the Gators would give up 31 points to LSU and they gave up 16. A very impressive performance given where they were just a week ago.

Takeaway

I don’t think it is hyperbole to call this Napier’s biggest win as Gators head coach.

When he beat Utah in 2022, he was just starting and did so with a QB that we all suspected wouldn’t be around when he had put his stamp on the program. When he beat Tennessee in 2023, it was with a QB (Graham Mertz) who we all knew was a transition guy to Lagway and Florida jumped out to an early lead and held on to the win in the second half.

But this was the delivery of a promise. I’ve repeatedly said that while it isn’t fair to the player, D.J. Lagway was going to be who made or broke Napier’s tenure at Florida. He had to be a generational star to offset some of the deficiencies in coaching and recruiting that we’ve seen thus far. This performance answers that he has that capability.

And that’s good because there were still the typical Florida execution issues in this one. We’ve already looked at the third down conversions, but Florida also took over in LSU territory twice and didn’t come away with points after offensive penalties. There were false starts on those drives – inexcusable at home – and when Chimere Dike looked to be getting a running start on a punt return, his fumble could have been disastrous.

Still, this was a tough win for the Gators. With the game tied at 13, Lagway felt pressure from the outside, stepped up in the pocket, and hit Badger at the one-yard line on a throw that only a few players in the world – NFL or pro – can make. He’s also probably one of a few who actually attempt it, as Badger was covered better than Chimere Dike, who was streaking towards the sideline at the 10-yard line.

When Jadan Baugh ripped off the 55-yard run to put it away, The Swamp burst into delirium. But it wasn’t just the touchdown run or the win against LSU that caused that reaction. It was a release as Gators fans realized that their hope in Lagway had not been misplaced.

He is who we thought he could be. He indicated that might be true against Samford. He checked another box against Kentucky. But he announced that is true on one good leg against LSU.

And that’s why this is the biggest win of Billy Napier’s tenure at Florida.