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Florida’s defense delivers in statement win over Ole Miss

For years, Florida has been a paper tiger because when it really came time to get a stop, they couldn’t do it.

Last year against Utah when Cam Rising couldn’t play, they got lit up on the opening play by Bryson Barnes, the definition of a limited backup QB. They gave up 39 points to K.J. Jefferson and a bad Arkansas offense. They surrendered  a fourth-and-17 conversion to Missouri in that loss. And when Mertz went down and Max Brown had Florida up 12-0 against FSU, they allowed Tate Rodemaker to roll-up 24 points in the last 33 minutes of the game.

It felt like that this year again. There were obviously the poor performances against Miami, Texas A&M and Texas, but there were also the opportunities that slipped through this team’s fingers in overtime against Tennessee and in the second half against Georgia.

Last week’s win against LSU was a big deal in many ways because of the emergence of D.J. Lagway against a good SEC team. But Garrett Nussmeier isn’t that great of a QB, so you (or I) could continue to doubt the unit because it still hadn’t stopped anyone all that good.

We can’t say that now.

Defensive Performance

Coming into this game, Ole Miss had the second-best offense in the country led by Jaxson Dart, who sported a QB rating of 188.6 (elite) and a Yards Above Replacement (YAR) – my proprietary stat that takes a QBs running and passing into account – of 3.10 (Heisman-level).

I thought it was going to take 40 points for Florida to win and those concerns were not alleviated by the Gators defensive performance in the first half.

In that half, Dart had a QB rating of 184.8, a YAR of 2.0 and Ole Miss averaged 7.2 yards per play (elite). Florida was getting shredded through the air (10.3 yards per play) and the only thing keeping them in the game was Ole Miss mistakes, as the Rebels failed to convert a fourth down at the Florida 11 after Dart refused to block on a wildcat play and then missed a field goal after a pass to Tre Harris was ruled incomplete as he pulled his groin mid-catch.

But the thing that stood out to me was how comfortable Dart looked.

Here’s an example, where when Dart hits the back of his drop, he comfortably steps up into the throw and hits a streaking Tre Harris for a touchdown. You can criticize Bryce Thornton for allowing Harris to get behind him and you can note that Des Watson got a pretty decent push up the middle, but when you’re going against a good QB, decent doesn’t work. You have to be perfect. Or you have to make him see ghosts.

Compare that last throw to this one in the second half.

I want to ask a question as you watch this video? Who forced Dart out of the pocket? You might say Cam Jackson (#99) from the top of the pocket, but he doesn’t threaten Dart until at least a second after he finishes his drop. He also never gets there but the threat flushes Dart to the outside where he has to throw the ball away and Ole Miss settles for a field goal.

So what caused this change from the first half to the second half? It really was a great team effort, particularly on the defensive line. If I had to pick one guy, it would be Caleb Banks. Banks led the Gators with 2.5 sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss. But more than that, he made Dart uncomfortable.

This isn’t a sack for Banks or an individual tackle for loss in the boxscore. Yet Banks is completely responsible for everything that happens here. I’ve against paused the video at the point when Dart hits the back of his drop. Banks has already pushed the guard back into Dart to a point where when the video comes off pause, Dart has to take a quick step backwards and reset, which disrupts the play’s timing and eventually forces him from the pocket.

Note that Des Watson, who was lined up next to Banks occupies two offensive linemen so that Banks gets a one-on-one rep. That wasn’t the only time Watson occupied two linemen that freed up his teammates.

Dart was also seeing ghosts because Florida clearly knew Ole Miss’ snap count. You can see that on two plays that I’ll highlight here.

Jack Pyburn (#44) is blitzing on this play. But he disguises it perfectly and makes it to the line of scrimmage right as the ball is snapped. The result is that the pulling guard and tackle can’t get out to his side in time. Dart has to make a decision to pull the ball and run or hand off and reads Pyburn so gives the ball to his back. But Caleb Banks (#88) immediately shoots up-field at the snap and disrupts the play, allowing Bryce Thornton (#18) to come up and clean things up.

The initial look on this play – which was highlighted on the broadcast – was that Florida only had five guys in the box so this would be an easy run for Ole Miss on second-and-8. Instead, bringing Pyburn completely bungled things for the Rebels and while they gained a few yards, it was a hectic five yards.

And on the most important play of the game, Pyburn did it again.

The announcers on the broadcast just couldn’t understand why JJ Pegues decided to bounce this run to the outside, but the answer is Pyburn. At the point that I’ve paused the video, Pyburn is collapsing his blocker (#86 for Ole Miss) into the hole created by the double-team on Florida’s defensive tackle (Michael Boireau, #93).

But if you watch the clip again, what you’ll see is that Pyburn has a running head start. He is already starting to move before the ball is snapped, which is what allows him to get the inside position I pointed out. Pegues probably should have forged ahead and taken on Pyburn to try and get the yard, but he bounced the play specifically because Pyburn was rapidly closing the hole, and he was closing the hole because he knew when Ole Miss was going to snap the ball (or is really, really good at anticipating the snap count).

Ole Miss had 77 plays in this game. The Gators had 9 tackles for loss, 6 passes defensed and 2 interceptions. That converts to a havoc rate of 22 percent, well above the Gators season average coming in (16.3%).

They made Dart uncomfortable and the result was an Ole Miss offense that had been a juggernaut all year only put up 17 points.

Coming in, Dart was 29-63 (43%) for 1232 yards (19.5 yards per attempt) with a QB rating of 272.0 on throws over 20 yards. Against the Gators on Saturday, he was 2-9 (22%) for 73 yards (8.1 yards per attempt) for a QB rating of 82.6.

Offensive Line

In all the D.J. Lagway talk, I think we should give some plaudits to an often overlooked unit: the Gators offensive line.

Ole Miss’ offense came into this game with the fifth ranked defense and the best defense in the country against the run (2.4 yards per rush). Yet Florida was able to run the ball, especially in the first half.

While the Gators defense struggled to get its bearings against Dart and the Rebels in the first half, the Florida offense was able to put up 14 points of its own in large part because they ran the ball 25 times for 120 yards (4.8 yards per rush). That slowed down significantly in the second half (20 rushes for 44 yards, 2.2 yards per rush), but by that point D.J. Lagway had been able to get comfortable enough to outplay Dart.

The thing is, the offensive line doesn’t have to be great with Lagway back there. It just has to do its job when called upon. Here’s a great example of just that.

I’m probably not the only Gators fan who thought Napier was getting too cute when he lined up Montrell Johnson in the wildcat on second-and-five from the Ole Miss nine-yard line. But I missed two things with that initial thought process. First, this gave Florida seven blockers against seven Rebel defenders in the box. And second, Ole Miss employs Princely Umanmielen at defensive end.

Watch the play as Umanmielen guesses that Johnson will hand the ball off to the wide receiver (Dike) coming across the formation instead of collapsing the line of scrimmage like we saw from Pyburn earlier. But then watch as Knijeah Harris (#77) dances into the hole and manages to block two Ole Miss defenders trying to tackle Johnson.

Johnson was great in the game (18 carries, 107 yards), but this is probably the easiest nine yards he’s ever had on a football field.

Ole Miss came into the game with a havoc rate of over 25 percent. The Rebels’ defense left Gainesville with five tackles for loss (3 sacks), 4 passes defensed and one INT. That equates to a havoc rate of 16.4 percent. That’s with a QB still running around gingerly on a tender hamstring.

Will Muschamp used to say that the SEC is a line of scrimmage league. Lane Kiffin invested heavily in those areas – particularly the defensive line – this offseason in an attempt to catch up to the rest of the league. But Florida beat Ole Miss up-front, which is why the Gators got the win in this one.

Takeaway

Florida now stands at 6-5 heading into what is about a sure a win as they’ll ever get against Florida State. The way it feels from where the team stood after the 49-17 drubbing two weeks ago against Texas to now is night-and-day.

Of course, we should remember that when thinking about how quickly it can head in the wrong direction as well.

The last time Florida played Ole Miss in The Swamp, the Gators stomped the third-ranked Rebels 38-10, after having authored a miracle comeback against the Vols the week before. The Gators then beat Missouri 21-3 the next week and limped to the finish line after Will Grier was suspended.

Never in my wildest dreams did I think that night as the Florida program was teeming with hope that it would come crashing down less than two years later.

I’ve talked a lot about withdrawals and deposits over Billy Napier’s tenure. He has made a lot of withdrawals from the fan base over his three seasons and seemingly every time he’s made a deposit, there’s been an immediate withdrawal thereafter. My concern after the LSU game was that we were going to see that again.

But credit to Napier and his team, they took on an Ole Miss team coming in off a bye week and beat them physically. They were the tougher team in The Swamp on Saturday, which is why they won this game.

Wins and hope are the way you create deposits as the head coach of a major college football program. Over the past two weeks, Napier has provided that with wins over LSU and Ole Miss, but also the emergence of D.J. Lagway, who provides hope that these two wins are not just the fleeting victories over Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri that Florida achieved with Grier at the helm in 2015.

Good for Napier, to cut through the noise and to find answers when lots of folks (including me) didn’t think he had any. Good for the players, for continuing to play hard despite all the noise and to turn this season into something to be proud of.

A 6-5 record doesn’t mean anything if you end up 6-6 and lose to the worst Florida State team in years. A 7-5 record doesn’t mean anything if you don’t convert it into recruiting momentum, transfer portal momentum, and momentum heading into 2025.

But Florida proved something on Saturday. This year, Ole Miss was one of the big boys in the conference. And after starting the year 0-5 against the best teams on their schedule, Florida delivered a win against probably the best team they’ll face all year.

And Napier proved something too. After underachieving in big games in pretty much his entire tenure as Gator head coach, he was able to get his team to perform at a high level for two weeks in a row. He still needs to work on end-of-half clock management, but in every game except the Texas debacle, his team has been ready to play ever since the calendar hit October.

Was I wrong about Napier? Time will tell. But if I turn out to be, nobody will be happier about it than me. I want this team to succeed, and it is fun seeing a team that plays physical and has a dynamic, game-changing QB.

And it is fun to be beating the best teams in the SEC once again.

William’s Positivity Corner

I’ve been informed by those who read my analysis that I can sometimes come off as negative. I like to think of it as data-driven and honest, but I see how some folks might find it to be critical in nature. With that in mind, Nick Knudsen and David Soderquist suggested (most likely mockingly) that I should start “William’s Positivity Corner” to show you that just like the Grinch, my heart can grow a few sizes given the right circumstances.

With that in mind, we’re going to talk about Florida football and my son Max. Max is 9-years old and every year we make the trek down to Gainesville for a game, and every year thus far Max has seen a good one.

In 2022, we went down for the opener against Utah and he celebrated like a madman when Amari Burney intercepted Cam Rising to end the game in the Gators endzone. In 2023, we went to the FSU game and he looked dismayed as we heard the tomahawk chant endlessly as we filed out of the stadium. And this year, he learned (much to his mother’s chagrin) the “move back, you suck” chant and was shouting “it’s great to be a Florida Gator” bouncing up and down as we exited after Jadan Baugh put the game away against LSU by running right toward us.

I love all of that stuff, but the best part of the night was after we sang “We are the boys” and “Won’t back down” going into the fourth quarter, Max leaned over, gave me a hug and said “thanks for taking me, daddy.”

Amidst all of the questions around the program and Billy Napier, that moment specifically reminded me why we all care about this so much. I’m not sure that Max will remember 20 years from now any of the exact details of that game. But he’ll remember how it felt to share that moment with me.

I know it had an impact, because while he always shows interest in the score of the Gator games when we’re home on TV, he was next to me watching in a way he never has before yesterday against Ole Miss.

I always say, we only get 12 of these every year. Well, Florida’s resurgence the last two weeks means we’ll get 13, and that means one more game to share with Max. So thank you to the team, and thank you to Billy Napier for delivering number 13.

Some people may see it in the big picture as a meaningless bowl game. But it means a lot to Max, and so it means a lot to me.