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Florida runs away from the Seminoles, 31-11

This one felt a little bit lackadaisical. That’s what happens when your QB struggles and the opposition has zero clue what to do on the offensive side of the ball.

Yet, Florida teams in the past would have let this game get a lot closer than this one got. The game was essentially over when D.J. Lagway led the one decent drive that Florida had all night and put the Gators up 14-0, but was absolutely over when Montrell Johnson hit a 65-yard touchdown to put Florida up 24-3.

In between were a lot of hiccups, but if you beat your rival by 20 points when playing lackluster football, you have to celebrate it. That’s particularly true when it caps off a three-game winning streak that includes wins over LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State.

The result is that Florida is 7-5 as it prepares for a bowl game and hopefully does what is necessary to move from 7-5 this year to 10-2 next year.

The Quarterbacks

Coming into this game, FSU’s Luke Kromenhoek had a QB rating of 116.6 and a Yards Above Replacement (YAR) – my proprietary stat that takes running and passing efficiency into account – of -1.04. Against Florida, Kromenhoek put up a QB rating of 95.6 and a YAR of -2.05.

That is what Florida’s defense was able to accomplish. They took a QB who was well below average coming in and made him look even worse. None of those stats take the fumbles into account either, as Kromenhoek accounted for five, with two of the three that he lost being absolute killers.

The first came on a sack by Jack Pyburn that set up Florida with a first down at the FSU 14-yard line. It only took Florida two plays to convert that into a touchdown.

The second was a complete disaster, as FSU had driven to the Florida 3-yard line when Kromenhoek pitched the ball to running back Kam Davis. It was slightly behind Davis, but it needs to be brought in. But the result was that instead of the ‘Noles bringing the game to a 17-10 Gator lead, Florida was still up 17-3 and set up for the Montrell Johnson dagger.

If this game felt like a slog, that’s because of D.J. Lagway. Lagway has been outstanding for the past month, but this was, by far, his worst performance as a Gators starter. He came into the game with a QB rating of 163.5 with a YAR of 2.42. In this game, his QB rating was 135.3 and his YAR was -2.12.

Essentially, Lagway wasn’t much better than Kromenhoek. However, other than an interception caused by one of his receivers running the wrong route, Lagway didn’t turn the ball over. Kromenhoek turned the ball over repeatedly.

The result was that Florida won the turnover battle by the tune of 5-1. Those are games you should win by 20, and Florida did so.

The Gators’ defense

Florida’s defense has been opportunistic over the past few weeks, but they haven’t always been great.

Against LSU, they surrendered only 4.3 yards per play but allowed the Tigers to convert 13 of 24 third downs, which kept the game closer than it probably should have been. Against Ole Miss, the Gators surrendered 6.0 yards per play overall, but lowered that to 4.9 in the second half and caused three turnovers.

But against the ‘Noles, the Gators defense not only caused the five turnovers, but also limited Florida State to a 3.3 yards per play average, below their season average of 4.0.

And the five turnovers were just part of it. They were a symptom of the Gators defensive line harassing Kraumenhoek and company all night long, as Florida had 8 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, 3 passes defensed and caused 8 fumbles. That equates to a havoc rate of 30.5 percent.

When you’re causing something bad to happen on a third of an offense’s snaps, they’re going to look anemic.

The sacks where the defender comes from the backside are always the sexy ones that we remember. Florida had two in this game – one by Tyreak Sapp and one from Jack Pyburn – that turned into fumbles. But if I was going to highlight why Florida’s defense has started to turn a corner, this is the play I’d select.

On this play I’ve circled the two interior defensive linemen, Tyreak Sapp (#94) and Caleb Banks (#88). Banks lit up the stat sheet last week but doesn’t even appear on it this week with a tackle. But that doesn’t mean he didn’t make an impact.

On the play, Sapp and Banks run a stunt. Banks then drives Florida State’s left guard directly into Kromenhoek. Sapp does the same with the Seminoles’ center and the result is that Kromenhoek – who was looking to run when he got in trouble – was completely engulfed.

If I were to pinpoint one thing that Florida has been doing more over the past three games than they were before, it’s that the Gators are getting consistent pressure up the middle. If you look at the interceptions Jaxson Dart threw last week, he had a hand in his face from a defensive tackle just about every time. And if you look at the play where Pyburn got the sack from behind, you’ll also see Cam Jackson being double-teamed in the middle, leaving Pyburn in a one-on-one matchup with the tackle.

Takeaway

Last season, Florida faced a similarly anemic Florida State offense led by Tate Rodemaker in The Swamp. Rodemaker went 12-25 for 134 yards and ran 5 times for -26 yards. The result was a QB rating of 93.0 and a YAR of -3.27. Both of those marks are worse than Kromenhoek had on Saturday night.

The problem was that Florida had Max Brown playing QB, and Brown had a QB rating of 88.9 and a YAR of -2.67 on the night. Even on an off-night, Lagway was much better than that. The other difference was that Florida was unable to cause the turnovers last year that they were able to on Saturday night.

But if you want to point at why Florida fans should be brimming with hope while FSU fans should be dreading 2025, it’s this: if you’re searching for a QB and you don’t have elite talent everywhere else, things are going to be rough.

Florida State likely won’t have another 10-loss season with Gus Malzahn at offensive coordinator next year, but unless they find a true replacement for Jordan Travis this offseason, they’re going to struggle.

On the other side, the Gators have a potentially transcendent player at QB in Lagway. Saturday was part of the learning experience as he didn’t look comfortable and was inaccurate from the start, but still managed to make the key plays when it mattered to get the Gators a win.

Surely moving forward he will be more of the reason the Gators win than something they have to overcome, but the tape on this one won’t lie: he still has work to do. But that’s an exciting thing for a team that wants to take the next step from 7-5 to 9-3 or 10-2.

The step from 5-7 last year to 7-5 this year seems big, but it’s relatively small compared to where Florida wants to go. Florida has lost five games against teams that are anywhere from very good to elite, which is where the Gators want to go. But to get to 10-2, Florida will have to win the seven they got this year plus pick off three of those five against the elite teams on the schedule.

Can they do it? I still have my doubts about Billy Napier being able to build a defense that allows this team to consistently shut down the big dogs in the conference. But Lagway is going to continue to grow and as he starts to play even better than he has in 2024, he’s going to give Florida fans hope that the team can compete with anybody.

And hope is a wonderful thing.

William’s Positivity Corner

I got a good response from my positivity corner and story about Max last week, so we’ll bring this back as a recurring feature.

At church this past weekend, the pastor asked this question: “What if the person standing in front of you was sent to you by God to be loved and cared for.” To say that was a convicting question is an understatement.

We then proceeded to fill “hope packs” that will be sent to local prisons to remind inmates that someone cares about them during the holiday season. The hope packs were pretty simple: a journal, a calendar, an activity book, and a card reminding them that they are not defined by only their mistakes. It seems insignificant if I’m honest, but the pastor then read a few notes from some inmates who had received them last year.

For some, it was the only piece of mail they got all year. One specifically thanked the church because it made him realize that he was not forgotten.

Packing those bags made me start to think about the demographics of the people we were sending the packs to. According to The Sentencing Project, in 2016, 47 percent of people in state prisons and 57 percent of those in federal prisons were parents of minor children.

I told the story about taking Max to the LSU game last week and a moment where he reached over and hugged me after the third quarter and thanked me for taking him. The kids of those (mostly) men will likely never experience that.

I’m not sure what to do with that just yet.

All I know is that somebody reading this right now has a kid that needs to know that you care about them, and you do have the chance to tell them. Somebody reading this is an adult who has had a falling out with their Dad, but you have a chance to reach out. Because the message the pastor gave where he asked “what if the person standing in front of you was sent to you by God” applies to strangers, but it applies to your Dad or your kid as well.

And all it takes is a phone call to help him or her realize that this Thanksgiving, they aren’t forgotten by you.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!