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Lessons for Florida from this year’s College Football Playoff selections

Will Miles

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Lessons for Florida from this year’s College Football Playoff selections

There is a lot of controversy around Alabama being left out of the 2024 College Football Playoffs. I don’t really care too much about the Crimson Tide, but their exclusion (as well as South Carolina’s and Ole Miss’) does teach us things about Florida and how they need to navigate the 2025 season and beyond in this new playoff era.

Lesson #1: Win your close games

Oregon played four teams that ended up in the top-25 (3 in the top-10). One-score wins over Boise State (37-34), Ohio State (32-31) and Penn State (45-37) led their way to the top seed in the playoff. The Ducks also won a 16-13 game at Wisconsin.

Normally teams have .500 records in close games. Even if you look at the elite coaches, their ability to win big is normally tied with avoiding one-score games rather than consistently winning them. Had two of those one-score games gone against Oregon as we would normally expect, they might have been sitting on the bubble against Penn State, rather than just playing for seeding.

You don’t have to look far in the SEC to see the effect of this as well. Kalen DeBoer had the rabbit’s foot last year at Washington as the Huskies went 8-0 in one-score games. This year, DeBoer went 2-2 with the Tide, with close losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Ole Miss was 0-3 in one-score games. South Carolina lost two games by 5 total points.

You have to be a little bit lucky.

Lesson #2: Get up for road games

Oregon’s aforementioned close games were at home vs. Boise State, at home vs. Ohio State, a neutral site game against Penn State….and on the road against Wisconsin.

Alabama’s three losses were on the road against Vanderbilt, on the road against Tennessee and on the road against Oklahoma. Georgia’s two losses were on the road against Alabama and on the road against Ole Miss. Ole Miss lost on the road against Florida and on the road against LSU. Somehow the Rebels lost at home against Kentucky, which doomed their fate.

You’re going to have a close call or two on the road no matter who you are. But if you want to make the playoff, the schedule makers are going to make a difference not just with strength of schedule, but whether you play a bunch of quality opponents away from home.

Lesson #3: Finish top-2 in your conference

I know that Florida fans will get excited for the games against Miami and FSU next year, but those games don’t really matter much as things are currently configured. With the 12-team playoff and the emphasis on conference championship games not losing their shine, if you make the SEC Championship Game, you’re going to be in the playoff.

Miami won what everyone presumed was a critical non-conference game against the Gators to open the season; one that looked even better as the Gators started winning towards the end of the year. But (road) losses against Georgia Tech and Syracuse doomed the ‘Canes to being left out.

Texas lost the SEC Championship Game and still got in. Penn State lost its championship game and still got in. SMU lost its championship game and still got in. Clearly the committee wants these things to matter, so apparently that’s the way to make sure you find yourself playing for it all.

Lesson #4: Don’t play anybody tough

Tennessee lost (on the road) to Arkansas and Georgia. The only other team they played in the CFP top-25 was Alabama. None of those games were next to each other on their schedule.

Indiana lost to Ohio State (on the road) and played zero teams that finished in the CFP top-25.

Boise State lost to Oregon (on the road) and only played one other team in the CFP top-25 (UNLV).

Notre Dame lost (at home!) to Northern Illinois and then only played one other team in the CFP top-25 (Army).

Ohio State only played three teams in the top-25 (Oregon, Penn State and Indiana) and most of us think Indiana is a paper tiger.

Texas lost to Georgia twice, but then didn’t play anybody else ranked in the top-25.

Lesson #5: The Jags need to hire Kirby Smart

With Early Signing Day this past week, I received some flak for writing about where Florida’s recruiting classes stood next to the Bulldogs and the Tide.

But consider this: Carson Beck hasn’t been all that great this season. Georgia has had four games against playoff teams and six games against teams ranked in the top-25, five of those away from Athens (though admittedly, two in Atlanta). You can bristle at Kirby Smart’s calling out SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey for the Bulldog’s schedule, but this was a gauntlet.

Yet still, Georgia emerged the SEC Champion.

I have never liked Georgia, but the newfound dominance of the Bulldogs in the Smart era has turned that dislike into sports hate. But even I have to respect what they have done this year. Nothing about their schedule has been easy this year.

Except for now, as the Bulldogs get either Notre Dame or Indiana (two teams on my untested list above) and then potentially either SMU or Boise State. If you made me pick a team at gunpoint to win it all right now, I’m going with the ‘Dawgs.

It may be that the only way to stop them is for Smart to move on to the NFL.

Takeaways for Florida

Florida can’t take advantage of lesson number 5, as they have to play Georgia every year and as of now, nobody has Smart heading to take over the Jets. Lesson 4 is off the books as well since the Gators are going to play an almost identical schedule in 2025 to what they played in 2024. With Georgia, Texas and Alabama in the conference, it’s going to be hard to guarantee enough wins to finish top-2 in the conference.

That means the Gators are looking at having to be the third (or fourth if next year’s SMU is able to win the ACC Championship) SEC team into the tournament, and given what we saw this year that means a 10-2 record.

The ways to get to that record are pretty clear. Win your close games and get up for road games. The Gators’ road games next year are Miami, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Florida’s going to have to run the table on those because the home/neutral games are Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, Mississippi State, FSU, USF and LIU.

Billy Napier is 5-6 in one-score games as Florida head coach, but he had a ridiculous 16-3 record in one-score games at Louisiana, including a 13-1 record in his last two seasons there. Some of that fairy dust is going to be needed for the Gators to get where they need to go.

Or perhaps, Florida just needs a savior. My assertion that Florida isn’t recruiting well enough to win consistently is grounded in historical evidence. But not a lot of teams that have recruited at Florida’s level have also secured themselves a D.J. Lagway at QB.

Danny Wuerffel and Tim Tebow have statues outside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium because they were able to lead Florida to championships and win a Heisman. They were able to do so, in part, because they were on rosters littered with NFL talent. Florida isn’t devoid of talent, but the team coming back in 2025 – even if massively augmented by the transfer portal – isn’t going to approximate the level of talent of those 1996 or 2008 teams.

Florida still has a shot because of Lagway. And if he gets it done, we need to fully appreciate what he has accomplished, because it will be the most impressive thing a QB has ever done in Gainesville.

And that’s saying a lot given the statues already outside the stadium.

Raptors Squares

I’m running a College Football Squares competition (similar to what you’ve probably done in the Super Bowl) in service of my son’s 13U baseball team, the Royersford Raptors. All funds not paid out in winnings will go towards raising money for tournament entry fees and travel expenses for the team.

Cost to enter is $10, and the prizes are $25 for having the right square at the end of the 1st or 3rd quarter, $50 for the half, and $125 for the game. Lots of opportunities to play with the playoff setup, as we’ll be doing one for each playoff game.

Check out the links below to play, payment will be to my Venmo (@WillMilesSEC), and the password to enter a pick is Raptors2024.

Thanks for helping out!

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